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Niklas Swanström
The previous issue of the China and Eurasia Forum (CEF) Quarterly addressed the narcotics problem and its negative impact on the region. Terrorism is another key challenge faced by the governments today. On the one hand, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) was effectively destroyed during the U.S. intervention in Afghanistan; the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) in Xinjiang has demonstrated limited activity in the 2000s; and Al-Qaeda seems to prioritize other theaters for staging its operations. On the other hand, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) continues to stress the persistent threat of terrorism, the Andijan uprising demonstrated how fragile the region is, and the Taleban is gaining ground in parts of Afghanistan. Al–Qaeda, moreover, is still operating in the vicinity despite its low profile in the region (...)
Central Asia in Al-Qaeda’s Vision of the Anti-American Jihad, 1979-2006
Michael Scheuer
Among the positive attributes of Osama bin Laden’s leadership is his consistent ability to differentiate between the essential and the nice to have. He has, to this point, kept Al-Qaeda and its closest allies focused on what he deems most important: Savaging America’s economy and political will to the point where Washington – under Democrats or Republicans – will no longer have the financial ability and popular support to field sufficient power in the Middle East to ensure the survival of the apostate, Arab police states Al-Qaeda has atop its list of Islam’s enemies (...)
Terrorism in Eurasia: Enhancing the Multilateral Response
Richard Weitz
The upcoming summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization provides a timely opportunity to enhance the international response to Eurasian terrorism. China, Russia, the United States and their allies should establish mechanisms to integrate better the efforts of the main multilateral institutions concerned with preventing and responding to terrorism in Central Asia. Many of their activities needlessly overlap, leading to wasted resources and potential conflicts (...)
East Turkestan Terrorism and the Terrorist Arc Belt: China’s Post-9/11 Anti-Terror Strategy
Pan Guang
Anti-terrorism has become an important part of China’s domestic and diplomatic agenda. China’s anti-terrorism campaign started even before 9/11, but it was only after the attacks that China participated fully and became a significant player in the international anti-terror coalition. This has its historical roots and theoretical basis. With reform and opening-up unfolding under Deng Xiaoping’s leadership in the 1980s, China experienced rapid economic growth, combined with an influx of various external influences into China. Some violent and terrorist activities, mostly with economic motivations and criminal elements began to occur (...)
Nuclear Smuggling, Rogue States and Terrorists
Rensselaer Lee
The trafficking of nuclear and radiological materials, which surged after the demise of the Soviet Union, is a recurrent and pervasive threat. Such materials could gravitate into hostile hands, increasing the array of potential dangers to Western security and stability. U.S.-funded security measures at post-Soviet nuclear facilities and border crossings suffer from technological and conceptual limitations and we should not feel much safer because of them. In response, improved intelligence on adversaries is a vital tool for proliferation prevention, complementing the reactive and stationary risk management systems now being implemented in Russia and elsewhere (...)
Reevaluating the Risks of Terrorist Attacks Against Energy Infrastructure in Eurasia
Pavel Baev
Oil terminals, refineries and pipelines appear to be ideal targets for terrorists with guaranteed media attention and high resonance in the sensitive markets. Indeed, such renowned expert in evil conspiracies as Georges Remi (Hegré) back in 1971 vividly depicted the panic in the West caused by explosions on pipelines in the Middle East in his Land of Black Gold, the 15th volume in the acclaimed series The Adventures of Tintin. Some 35 years later, in the world of globalized bad news, a spectacular fire on any oil rig or tanker would be immediately splashed over millions of TV screens and push prices to new record heights. Yet, surprisingly little of that is actually happening in the real Eurasian war against terrorist networks, from Xinjiang to Chechnya and from Egypt to Afghanistan, with the obvious exception of Iraq (...)
The Phenomenology of “Akromiya”: Separating Facts from Fiction
Alisher Ilkhamov
On May 13 2005, thousands of Andijan citizens came out to the main square of the city to hold a peaceful demonstration and, according to eye witnesses, were shot down by the governmental forces in the same evening. It was preceded by a court trial of 23 local businessmen who were accused by the government of being members of a secret extremist organization “Akromiya”. These businessmen were known and popular in the city for their charity activities and for providing jobs for around five thousand people. That is why many Andijaners, suffering from the decline of their living standards and chronic unemployment, were aggrieved by what they regarded as an unfair trial and participated in the pickets during the court hearings and in the demonstration on May 13. There is another part of the story: on the night from May 12 to 13, 2005, a group of armed men attacked a military barrack, a prison and local department of the security services (...)
Saule Mukhametrakhimova
The repressive policies of Central Asian governments towards Hizb ut-Tahrir (Party of Liberation) did nothing to reduce the influence of the banned Islamic party. This is not surprising as these authorities’ heavyhanded tactics can hardly compete with the movement’s sophisticated approach to gain popularity among the region’s disaffected. Its members believe that the Islamic way of life is the only way to address the problem of corruption and inequalities in these societies (...)
An Al-Qaeda Associate Group Operating in China?
Rohan Gunaratna & Kenneth George Pereire
The threat of global terrorism has escalated significantly in the last few years. International attention is naturally focused on countries where terrorist spectaculars have occurred, or where there are ongoing high profile conflicts. The drama and, corresponding attention often leave little time or attention to ‘lesser-known conflicts’. The situation in Xinjiang in Western China, an area bordering Afghanistan is a case in point (...)
Will Kazakh Authorities Avoid Extremist Pitfalls
Marat Yermukanov
The Kazakh security service does not miss out on demonstrating its capabilities to the international anti-terrorist alliance. The latest report in a series of asserted crack-downs on terrorist networks came on April 24. The Kazakh Security Services announced that: “in close cooperation with foreign security services” the National Security Committee had thwarted a terrorist plot to blow up law-enforcement offices, government buildings, and public safety facilities in Almaty. The detained, including 10 Kazakh nationals were charged with propagating religious extremism and possession of firearms (...)
Cross Border Terrorism Issues Plaguing Pakistan–Afghanistan Relations
Rizwan Zeb
On May 24, Pakistani law enforcement agencies arrested six Afghan nationals from the Zar Karez area of Loralai district for illegally entering Pakistan without proper documentation. Out of the six arrested, one is reportedly a member of the Afghan provincial assembly, the second is the head of the border security force, while the third is an official of the Afghan intelligence. According to media reports, they were suspected of supplying weapons to the Baloch militants in Pakistan (...)
Confronting Terrorism and Other Evils in China: All Quiet on the Western Front?
Chien-peng Chung
Despite the predictions of many observers, and reports of occasional arrests of political activists, China’s hitherto restive western regions heavily populated by non-Han Chinese ethnic minorities have been relatively quiet for a number of years. However, disturbances by ethnic minorities can recur with little forewarning. If or to what extent they do clearly depends on three major set of factors: PRC minority policies, foreign attention, and minorities’ grievances (...)
Fact and Fiction: A Chinese Documentary on Eastern Turkestan Terrorism
Yitzhak Shichor
This article provides, for the first time in public, an English summary and analysis of a 60-minute video documentary called "On the Spot Report: The Crimes of Eastern Turkestan Terrorist Power" (Dongtu kongbu shili zuixing jishi). The documentary was shown to the author in August 2002 on a visit to Xinjiang at the official invitation of the Xinjiang International Economic and Cultural Development Center and a transcript was also provided. This rare documentary reflects Beijing's representation of "Eastern Turkestan terrorism,” and its efforts to spread this message through the author and the media (...)
Strategic Surprise? Central Asia in 2006
Stephen Blank
In 2005, despite warnings about Uzbekistan’s fragility by American experts Washington did not expect the uprising at Andijan which came to have a profound impact on its regional position by significantly lessening its ability to use Central Asian bases in the war on terrorism. Yet much of this could have been avoided by a coherent policy that took developments in Central Asia seriously, showed heightened rather than diminishing attention to the area, and took seriously both American strategic interests and the cause of democratization. Drawing on the concept of strategic surprise, the author of this article seeks to demonstrate that unless problems of poor policy and intelligence are corrected, the United States and other Western governments are likely to be surprised again in Central Asia, or be unable to deal effectively with future surprises (...)
Counterinsurgency, Counterterrorism, State-building and Security Cooperation in Central Asia
Michael Mihalka
Radical Islamism does not look set to recover any time soon in Central Asia. This is not because countries in the region are pursuing particularly effective counterterrorism or counterinsurgency policies either domestically or in cooperation with their neighbors. Rather the problem appears to lie with the nature of the local radical Islamist movements themselves, poorly led, poorly organized and with ideologies that remain alien to the customs of local Islam (...)
Multilateralism, Bilateralism and Unilateralism in Fighting Terrorism in the SCO Area
Farkhod Tolipov
Following the events on September 11, a “market for anti-terrorist services” emerged in and around Central Asia. The states of Central Asia have lately been engaged in setting up a number of bilateral and multilateral formats and mechanisms for cooperation on these issues. While some of these for sure may be fruitful most of them are negatively affected by expectations of some kind of economic assistance for cooperation. This development also clearly reflects another and possibly deeper issue, namely a penetration of geopolitics into terrorism and anti-terrorism. This very fact is, perhaps, the main reason why the fight against terrorism in the SCO area has taken multilateral, bilateral and unilateral forms. In the end, however, it is in the best interest of the states in Central Asia to effectively manage their security on their own and escape effects of geo-politics and reliance on extra-regional powers (...)
