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Editor's Note
Niklas Swanström
This spring has so far witnessed a number of events which will prove to have major implications for the security situation and the geo-political alignments in Eurasia. Russia has stepped up its activity in Central Asia, especially in the energy sector but also through an expanded military presence. The European Union has under Germany’s presidency for the first time demonstrated intent to take the strategic significance of Central Asia seriously. Meanwhile, the U.S.’ deployment at Manas airport in Kyrgyzstan is looking increasingly uncertain after a fatal shooting of a Kyrgyz citizen combined with a Kyrgyz domestic political opinion questioning a continued U.S. presence (...)
The New Nomads? The American Military Presence in Central Asia
Daniel Burghart
Much has been written on U.S. involvement in Central Asia, and specifically the military component of that involvement. This article presents a short history of this involvement since the breakup of the Soviet Union, the reasons behind this effort, and how it is perceived by the various regional actors. It concludes with future prospects, as well as the logic supporting regional cooperation (...)
Not Much of a Game: Security Dynamics in Central Asia
Michael Mihalka
The security dynamics of Central Asia do not represent a "great game" as some people suggest but several competing agendas with differing goals and time frames. To the U.S. with a global outlook, interest in the region is fleeting. Access to the region's resources is problematic and the radical Islamist threat has been dealt with for now. Central Asia is fallow ground for liberal democracy. A Russia revived through petrodollars is newly assertive in what it considers to be its own backyard. China takes a long view using economics and multilateralism to further its security interests. The EU has yet to develop a coherent policy towards a region of increasing strategic importance because of its resources and as a conduit of illegal drugs from Afghanistan (...)
A Match Made in Heaven? Strategic Convergence between China and Russia
Kyrre Elvenes Brækhus and Indra Overland
This article examines the strategic convergence between Russia and China. Strategic convergence is understood as material compatibility and overlap of key interests with regard to long-term developments in world politics, providing the basis for extensive tactical co-operation between two or more states. The article focuses on the compatibility of Russia and China in terms of complementary economies, location and political outlook. The match between Russian natural resources and Chinese markets is examined in particular. The article concludes that a closer relationship between the two countries in many ways would be of mutual advantage, but that it is far from certain that an alliance will develop (...)
Kazakhstan’s Security Interests and Their Implications for the U.S.-Kazakh Relationship
Olga Oliker
As the United States continues to rethink its security partnerships and relationships in the dynamic threat environment of the early 21st Century, the role of Central Asia is unclear. Are the Central Asian States to be partners of the United States in its broad global efforts? Which ones? Is the region a priority for U.S. interests or a secondary concern? Kazakhstan is particularly interesting because it differs from its Central Asian neighbors in its relative wealth and in the longevity of its relationship with the United States. This article will examine Kazakhstan’s security situation and threat perspective. On that basis, it will derive implications for the United States regarding the prospects for its future relations with Astana (...)
The Rise of Islam in Muslim Eurasia: Internal Determinants and Potential Consequences
Galina M. Yemelianova
Since the 1990s, the ex-Soviet Muslim Volga-Urals, Caucasus and Central Asia have been among the most volatile and dynamic zones of Islamic radicalization in the Islamic East. The latter, although being part of a wider Islamic resurgence that begun in the Middle East in the late 1970s, has been a specific post-Soviet phenomenon, triggered by the collapse of Communism and the break-up of the de facto unitary Soviet empire. For historical and social reasons the proliferation of radical Islam has been most intensive in the Ferghana Valley in Central Asia and north-eastern Caucasus. This article examines the internal sources and social base of Islamic radicalization in the three regions and identifies the differences in Islamic dynamics there (...)
On the Edge of the Big Muddy: The Taliban Resurgence in Afghanistan
Thomas H. Johnson
This article attempts to delve into the morass that is developing for American and NATO forces in Afghanistan. Only through a proper understanding of the motivations and multiple identities that the Taliban lays claim to can their rapidly-growing insurgency be defeated and peace reestablished. By examining the historical and tribal facets of the insurgency, the nature of the Taliban is laid bare. This understanding is absolutely critical if the U.S. and NATO hope to win the hearts and minds of the Afghan people (...)
The Hydroelectric Sector in Central Asia and the Growing Role of China
Sebastien Peyrouse
The stakes of hydroelectric matters between Central Asia and China have not been much discussed, though the possibilities for cooperation, as well as the potential problems, between these two zones are numerous. Beijing effectively views Central Asia as a region capable of supplying it with cheap electricity, which could make up with the energy shortfall in Xinjiang. Yet, China has arrived somewhat late on the Central Asian hydroelectricity market, the largest projects for hydroelectric stations being in the hand of Russian companies. However, many China-Central Asian projects play a very important role in local economic development and hydroelectricity cooperation could be promised to a bright future. This article then aims to give nuanced assessments of the Chinese potentials and limitations involved on a country-by-country, project-by-project basis (...)
