Click here for the entire issue in PDF format
Niklas Swanstrom
The Olympic Games in August is approaching and the Chinese have been preoccupied with stabilizing internal opposition and fending off international threats of boycotts. Notwithstanding the domestic and international protests and violence surrounding the situation in Tibet, Xinjiang and Central Asia have been relatively quiet. China has arrested a few persons allegedly planning terrorist attacks but most attention has been devoted to Tibet rather than Xinjiang. Many efforts are being put into monitoring and securing the border area between China and Central Asia in Xinjiang, however, to make sure that the situation does not get out of hand in the run-up to the Olympics and during the games (...)
Durability in China’s Strategy toward Central Asia – Reasons for Optimism
Robert Sutter
Debate continues among specialists of Chinese foreign relations as to whether or not Chinese foreign policy and behavior in the post-Cold War period reflect a coherent strategy that is likely to continue, or reflect sometimes contradictory goals and circumstances that could change and in turn change the direction of Chinese foreign policy and behavior. This assessment shows that contradictions and intruding circumstances that could change Chinese foreign policy and behavior seem less salient in China’s approach to Central Asia than in other areas of Chinese foreign relations. As a result, it argues that continuity in China’s strategy toward the region seems likely for some time to come (...)
How Financial Alchemy Engineered a Central Asian Credit Crunch
Maria Kielmas
Kazakhstan became the darling of the international markets over the decade that followed the Russian and Asian financial crises of 1997-98. Energy companies continued to invest in the country’s oil and gas industries despite the Kazakh government’s tightening control on the sector, and the formidable technical problems associated with the production of oil and gas in this region. Kazakh banks acquired an appetite for foreign borrowing, mostly to finance the domestic construction industry, itself booming as the population at last grasped the new opportunities of mortgages and home ownership.It all began to unravel in mid-2007 as the effects of the U.S. sub prime mortgage crisis began to reverberate around the world (...)
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization: A Threat to American Interests in Central Asia?
Gene Germanovich
With the apparently rising, Chinese-led, and Russian-supported Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) attracting increased attention in Washington, a question arises as to the level of danger the bloc poses to U.S. objectives for Central Asia. Is it a threat to U.S. interests in the region or largely irrelevant to those interests? To what extent does the nascent SCO currently pose a challenge, and secondly, what developments should the policy community track to assess the SCO as it relates to U.S. objectives for the region? This article explores contending views regarding this rising organization (...)
China’s Investments in Russia: Where do they go and how Important are they?
Libor Krkoska and Yevgenia Korniyenko
This article outlines the extent of Chinese direct investments in Russia, comparing the investment strategy of Chinese companies in Russia with their strategy in other countries. The experience to date suggests that Russia is an important target market for Chinese investors. The key determinants of Chinese investments in Russia are proximity of the investment location, market size, and ability to use Russia’s natural resources. Investments by Chinese companies are concentrated in Siberia, Far East, Moscow and St. Petersburg, with a prominent role in the natural resources related sectors, including not only oil and gas, but even more so, in forestry (...)
Michael Mihalka
Since 9/11 terrorism has increased and become a prominent feature of ongoing insurgencies. NATO has become increasingly involved in one such insurgency in Afghanistan. However, perceptions of failure in Afghanistan have decreased public support for the mission and undermined support for NATO itself. Although Western public perception is one of overall failure, the situation in Afghanistan itself is quite varied. In the non-Pashtun areas of the country, the situation is improving and reconstruction is perceived by many Afghans as being effective. In Pashtun areas the opposite is true. NATO has not yet developed an effective strategy for dealing with the Pashtun insurgency in part because the Pashtun area straddles the border with Pakistan (...)
Kazakh-Chinese Energy Relations: Economic Pragmatism or Political Cooperation?
Zhanibek Saurbek
Kazakhstan with its advantageous geopolitical location and vast deposits of oil and gas has become one of the main participants in the huge energy sector in the Central Asian region. This country is a landlocked state and shares borders with Russia, China, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan. Traditionally, Kazakhstan has been an ally and more than a partner to Russia since the two countries have the same cultural, ethnic, language and historic backgrounds. However, Kazakhstan has declared a “multivectoral” policy which means a willingness to develop and improve strategic, diplomatic and economic relations with the major geopolitical powers in the international arena, namely, China, Russia, the US, Europe and the Muslim world. Within that list, China ranks as one of the highest priorities for Kazakhstan to collaborate with for many reasons (...)
Big Business and High-level Politics in Kazakhstan: An Everlasting Symbiosis?
Heidi Kjærnet, Dosym Satpaev and Stina Torjesen
The managed democracies in the post-Soviet area are neither static nor inherently stable. In Kazakhstan, politics are defined by the tight but fluctuating relationships between top politicians and big business groups. Two features constantly inject dynamism and change into this structure. One is the rapidly changing weight and status of big business groupings due to the shifting fortunes of a booming economy; the other is the underlying dilemma and uncertainty associated with the future transfer of power when President Nursultan Nazarbaev ultimately leaves politics. This article assesses why and how the symbiosis between politics and business is such a central feature of politics in Kazakhstan (...)
