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Niklas Swanström
At this time of year, the winter has reached much of China and Eurasia but the region seems to be more sizzling than ever. The Taliban has increasingly asserted its presence in Afghanistan’s southern provinces, and launched an insurgence of a magnitude unprecedented since the fall of the regime. Kyrgyzstan has adopted a new constitution following increasing pressure on Kurmanbek Bakiyev, and the competition over energy in the Caspian is intensifying. The strategic partnership between China and Russia has been further consolidated throughout the year, and they form a joint front on Iran. China’s interest in forging deeper ties with India, after the two signed a strategic partnership 18 months ago, was also reconfirmed with the latest bilateral summit in late November where 13 agreements in the trade and energy sectors were signed. Most notable was the deal on civilian nuclear cooperation which comes amidst the U.S. Congress’ ratification of a similar agreement (...)
Kazakhstan and the United States in a Changed World
Evan A. Feigenbaum
This year, we mark twin anniversaries: the fifteenth anniversary of Kazakhstan’s independence and the fifteenth anniversary of the end of the Cold War. Put differently, the history of independent Kazakhstan has coincided precisely with a period of ferment and struggle, discussion and debate, a period in which many of the pillars that, for fifty years, defined the international system have fallen away.When Kazakhstan achieved its independence in December 1991, Kazakhstanis and Americans lived in a world shaped and scarred by the Cold War, defined by superpower competition, titanic ideological struggles among the powers, and “proxy” wars among competing blocs of states. With the end of the Cold War, what remained were the more hopeful pillars of an earlier time, built in the 1940s out of the ashes of a terrible world war (...)
The Logic behind Sino-Iranian Cooperation
Ilan Berman
While it is certainly true that today the United States, in the words of the Bush administration, “may face no greater challenge from a single country than from Iran,”1 this danger has not emerged in isolation. Serious foreign assistance has helped to nurture Iran’s nuclear quest and expand its regional ambitions. And currently perhaps Tehran’s greatest pillar of support is its ally in the East—the People’s Republic of China. Ever since the start of international negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program some three years ago, China has worked actively to dilute the effectiveness of any global response (...)
NATO Battles the Taliban and Tests Its Future in Afghanistan
Julianne Smith
NATO is currently undertaking the most consequential and substantial military operation in its history. When NATO assumed command of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan in August 2003, it represented a watershed in the Alliance’s history – the first mission outside the Euro-Atlantic Area. Today, the Alliance has over 30,000 troops on the ground, working to defeat the residual insurgency and undertaking large-scale reconstruction projects. NATO leaders hoped that this mission would serve as an indicator of the Alliance’s viability and effectiveness in tackling 21st century challenges. But the mission has posed problems for the Alliance, highlighting capability shortfalls, exposing ongoing problems with national caveats and coordination, and fueling thorny internal debates about NATO’s future roles and missions (...)
Russia’s Energy Leverage over China and the Sinopec-Rosneft Deal
Nicklas Norling
The bilateral relations between China and Russia have attracted much attention in recent years. This is partly due to the uncertainty surrounding the relationship, some arguing that relations are at an all time high, while others stress the underlying tensions involved and the volatile history between the two. The energy sector has been identified as an area of particular uncertainty where disagreements are frequent, although employed rhetoric and the tendency of both to downplay their differences may suggest otherwise. Conflicting interests particularly pertain to equity stakes in energy exploration and transportation which is of major strategic importance to both. Russia tries through all means to retain control over energy resources and its transportation networks while China hunts globally, including in Russia, for equity shares in energy resources and pipelines. As such, Moscow has vehemently opposed Beijing’s attempts to become a shareholder in Russia’s energy industry (...)
Kyrgyzstan’s Unfinished Revolution
Alisher Khamidov
Many view Kyrgyzstan’s newly adopted constitution as a triumph of democratic forces. But a closer scrutiny reveals that informal localism and kinship ties have played a decisive role in the opposition's ability to pressure the President to consent to constitutional changes. The growing role of kinship and localism networks has both positive and negative consequences for Kyrgyzstan. A sustained protest in Bishkek’s Ala-Too Square, lasting from November 2-9, 2006 has compelled the Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev to accept constitutional changes that transferred some of his powers to the parliament (...)
Talat Masood
The conflict over the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir has its origins in 1947 when British India was partitioned into two successor states of India and Pakistan, based on the acceptance of the two nation theory. Muslim majority states under dominion rule were allowed to exercise the right to join either India or Pakistan, but in case of the 565 princely states the decision rested with the rulers. Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), a Muslim majority state with a Hindu ruler geographically lay between the two countries. When in October 1947 an indigenous uprising supported by Pakistan tribesman occurred in J&K, and the freedom fighters were advancing on the then capital Srinagar, India rushed its forces and made the ruler, Maharaja Hari Singh, sign the Instrument of Accession (...)
Pakistan and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
Rizwan Zeb
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has in the last few years emerged as an important actor in the international order. Besides bringing together two major Eurasian powers, China and Russia, the organization has recently granted observer status to three additional regional powers, India, Pakistan, and Iran. A number of Western, and especially American scholars, view the SCO as a challenge to American interests. It has been described as an enigma, a security organization, a regional forum, an anti-terrorism coalition, and as a Russian and Chinese led alliance created to counter U.S. hegemony (...)
Central Asia and China’s Energy Security
Xuanli Liao
Due to its geopolitical significance, Central Asia has been the center of intense contestation among the great powers, most notably during the Great Game period between Tsarist Russia and the British Empire in the 19th century. The unexpected collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s once again left a power vacuum in the region, leading some analysts to depict the strategic context as a “new great game” in Central Asia. This renewed interest in the region is best explained by its rich reserves of petroleum and natural resources, which has attracted significant attention from the outside world, particularly among great powers (...)
Recreating the Silk Road: The Challenge of Overcoming Transaction Costs
Alan Lee Boyer
Over the last two years U.S. policy makers have been promoting a new vision for Central and South Asia. This vision advocates the creation of a new Silk Road. The idea behind the vision is to restore links between Afghanistan, the Central Asia Republics, and their neighbors. Realization of the vision can only occur if barriers to cooperation and integration are significantly reduced. Conceptually, these barriers can be understood by viewing them as transaction costs: the higher the transaction costs, the harder it will be to create a new Silk Road. High transaction costs are created by geography, dependence on other countries’ transit routes and a variety of political, social, and economic factors. The most significant factors contributing to high transaction costs are poor governance, underdeveloped infrastructure, and insecurity. Finding ways to lower transaction costs is the critical task for the United States and its partners (...)
Tarique Niazi
This article attempts to explore the ecological dimensions of strategic interests by examining China’s Asia-wide quest for key natural resources and safe seaways for their shipment. It takes a close look at three cases – one in the Indian Ocean region, the South China Sea region, and the Caspian Sea region – to explain interaction between natural resources and China’s emerging strategic interests in Asia. The article shows that Beijing’s quest for key natural resources underlies its economic and strategic alignments with the respective nations of Indian Ocean, South China Sea and Caspian Sea regions. The article implies that International Relations (IR) Theory and policy makers pay very close attention to the anchorage (...)
The Energy Security in Central Eurasia: the Geopolitical Implications to China’s Energy Strategy
Guo Xuetang
The competition among great powers over energy resources and pathways has gotten increasingly intense in recent years, not least in Central Eurasia (CEA). This article will explore the evolution of energy security that has taken place lately and the accompanying political, economic, and even military factors that improve or impede international energy cooperation in the Caspian and Central Eurasian region. It will also make an assessment of China’s geopolitical understandings of energy security in CEA, its implications for China’s energy strategy, and the future of Central Eurasian energy geopolitics (...)
China’s Central Asia Policy in Recent Times
Ramakant Dwivedi
The disintegration of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) opened up phenomenal opportunities for China to exercise and influence the ongoing politicaleconomic processes in the Central Asian region. Apart from the independence gained by the Central Asian Republics and their ability to operate as sovereign national entities, it is the first time in the history of Central Asia that the region is exposed to various external actors like the U.S., Turkey, the Arab World, Iran, South Korea, and Japan. China, being contiguous to the region, has a great opportunity to influence developments in Central Asia (...)
Politico-military Developments in Central Asia and Emerging Strategic Equations
Vinod Anand
Peace and security in are Central Asia being impacted by intra-regional competition as well as the strategic interests of both extra-regional powers and regional neighbors. The geo-strategic salience of Central Asia is underscored by both the discovery of energy reserves and its role as a major hub for gas and oil pipelines and communication corridors. These corridors stretch in all directions connecting China, Russia, Europe, the Caucasus region, the Trans-Caspian region and the Indian Ocean. While U.S. influence in the region has already peaked, both Russia and China are cementing their political, military and economic relationship with Central Asian nations. Meanwhile, India has been endeavoring to improve its profile in Central Asia. This article explores Central Asia’s unique characteristics, the competition among great powers, and India’s role in the region (...)
